Record summer air travel demand is not translating into unprecedented profits for U.S. airlines, a discrepancy that will be scrutinized in the upcoming quarterly earnings reports. Although airlines have forecasted record demand and, in some cases, revenue, rising labor and operational costs have eroded their profit margins. On Sunday, the Transportation Security Administration set a single-day screening record of over 3 million passengers.
Despite increased passenger volumes, airlines face challenges such as higher costs and operational issues. Many have slowed or halted hiring, contrasting with their previous expansion efforts post-pandemic. Additionally, delays in new aircraft deliveries from Airbus and Boeing, coupled with a Pratt & Whitney engine recall affecting numerous jets, have compounded the situation.
In July, U.S. airlines expanded capacity by approximately 6% compared to the same month last year, according to aviation data firm OAG. This increase in seat availability has kept airfare relatively stable, though the sector’s stock performance has lagged behind the broader market. The NYSE Arca Airline Index, covering 16 major U.S. airlines, has fallen nearly 19% this year, while the S&P 500 has risen over 16%.
The outlook for the third quarter remains uncertain due to potential headwinds such as weaker spending from coach-class travelers, the Paris Olympics affecting European bookings, and fluctuating corporate travel demand. Analysts also note a shift in travel preferences, with some opting for earlier summer trips.
Delta Air Lines, starting the earnings reports on Thursday, is considered a leading performer, largely due to its success in marketing premium seats and a lucrative partnership with American Express. Delta projects adjusted earnings of $2.20 to $2.50 per share for the second quarter, a decline from $2.68 per share a year earlier. Delta, United Airlines, and Alaska Airlines are seen as having lower earnings risk and better free cash flow compared to their peers.
Despite the bustling airports, increased flight schedules—domestic and international—are putting downward pressure on fares. U.S.-Europe capacity in July rose nearly 8% from last year, leading to a decrease in average coach fares. However, some carriers, like American Airlines and Southwest Airlines, have revised their revenue forecasts due to weaker-than-expected sales and shifting demand patterns.
Budget carriers like JetBlue and Frontier are adapting by cutting unprofitable routes and revising their fare structures. Spirit Airlines, grappling with operational challenges and legal issues, has warned of potential pilot furloughs and continues to navigate financial difficulties amid a looming debt payment.
Investors will gain further insight into these trends as airlines release their quarterly results throughout July.
